LNG inflows into Southeast Europe strengthened in Week 25, yet the regional electricity market still tightened. Greece recorded LNG inflows of 722.23 GWh, an increase of 19.7% week-on-week, while Italy received 4,004.02 GWh, up 5.27%. Croatia’s LNG inflows remained broadly stable at 635.84 GWh, with only a marginal decline of 0.8%. On paper, these figures suggest a well-supplied gas system across the region. However, electricity prices still rose across much of Southeast Europe.
This divergence is significant because it highlights a growing disconnect between fuel availability and electricity market pricing. LNG infrastructure improves gas supply security and ensures feedstock availability for gas-fired power plants, but it does not automatically translate into lower electricity prices when those plants are increasingly required to run. In Week 25, gas-fired generation across SEE increased by 32.3%, underscoring the system’s growing reliance on dispatchable thermal capacity.
Greece illustrates this distinction clearly. Strong LNG inflows combined with higher renewable output helped reduce electricity prices to €85.50/MWh, making Greece one of the lower-priced markets in the region. In this case, gas infrastructure supported system flexibility, while renewable generation and market positioning played a larger role in shaping the final price outcome.
Italy moved in the opposite direction. Despite recovering LNG inflows, it remained the most expensive market in SEE at €127.69/MWh. The key driver was not fuel scarcity, but structural electricity tightness: elevated demand, weaker hydro output, reduced wind generation and a sharp increase in thermal dispatch. Gas was available, but the system still required significant firm generation and imports, which sustained higher prices.
Croatia reinforced the same pattern. LNG inflows remained stable, yet electricity prices rose by 11.2% to €102.36/MWh, driven by stronger demand, weaker renewable output and increased reliance on imports. The presence of stable gas supply did not prevent electricity market repricing, further highlighting the separation between fuel logistics and power price formation.
Across the region, LNG infrastructure is therefore increasingly functioning as a flexibility enabler rather than a direct price stabiliser. It ensures that gas-fired generation can respond when needed, but the price impact depends on how often and how intensively the electricity system requires that flexibility.
For investors and market participants, the key question is shifting. It is no longer only about LNG import capacity, but about how effectively that gas is converted into electricity value. The interaction between flexible generation assets, grid constraints, balancing mechanisms and cross-border trading rules determines whether LNG becomes a stabilising influence—or simply fuels higher-priced scarcity generation during tight market conditions.
In Week 25, Southeast Europe demonstrated that even a well-supplied gas system cannot fully insulate electricity markets from volatility when power-system fundamentals tighten.