The 24 June 2026 session was a clear scarcity-pricing day across the northern and central SEE corridor. The headline signal was not a major increase in demand, but a tighter residual-load profile caused by weaker renewables, higher thermal dispatch and a sharp evening price spike. HUPX rose to €200.72/MWh, up €27.7/MWh day on day, while Romania’s OPCOM reached €200.95/MWh, making Romania the highest-priced SEE market in the daily average. Germany also cleared high at €207.84/MWh, keeping the HU-DE spread negative at -€7.12/MWh, which shows that Hungary was still below Germany despite the regional rally.
The regional price map split into two blocks. The high-price cluster was Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia, with BSP Slovenia at €195.49/MWh and CROPEX Croatia at €196.36/MWh. Serbia followed at a lower but sharply rising level, with SEEPEX up €62.8/MWh to €156.14/MWh, the strongest daily move in the region. Bulgaria and Greece remained materially cheaper at €141.66/MWh and €139.85/MWh, while Albania was the lowest market at €106.81/MWh. Montenegro was also weak relative to HUPX, with BELEN at €113.62/MWh, down €1.7/MWh day on day and €87.10/MWh below HUPX.
The fundamental balance explains the rally. Regional consumption was almost flat at 32,188 MW, only +30 MW day on day, but generation quality deteriorated. Wind fell by 712 MW to 2,123 MW, while solar dropped by 694 MW to 6,360 MW. To cover the gap, dispatch shifted back toward controllable generation: gas rose by 745 MW to 5,383 MW, hydro increased by 456 MW to 6,829 MW, and coal rose by 301 MW to 4,868 MW. Nuclear was stable at 5,037 MW. This was a classic residual-load squeeze: flat demand, weaker RES, more thermal marginality and a higher evening clearing price.
The hourly shape was the most important trading signal. The day did not price high evenly across all hours. HUPX fell to a daily minimum of €60.7/MWh at H14, then surged to €604.8/MWh at H21. Similar evening spikes appeared in Germany, Romania and Slovenia, with Germany reaching €665.8/MWh, Romania €601.4/MWh and Slovenia €583.5/MWh. That means the baseload increase was driven mainly by the evening ramp, not by a consistently tight 24-hour system. Midday remained softened by solar, but the evening block became extremely valuable.
The import picture also points to tightening. The HU+SEE region was a net importer by 538 MW, up 284 MW from the previous day. Core imports from AT+SK were 376 MW, slightly lower day on day, while the daily balance showed sharp differences between countries. Bulgaria and Greece were net exporters at around 1,066 MW and 1,050 MW, respectively. Croatia was a major importer at 983 MW, Romania imported around 1,063 MW, Serbia imported around 479 MW, and Hungary imported around 357 MW. The result was a market where southern export availability did not fully collapse the northern premium because congestion and hourly scarcity kept prices segmented.
Serbia’s position is particularly important. SEEPEX’s move to €156.14/MWh still left Serbia €44.58/MWh below HUPX, but the €62.8/MWh daily rise shows that Serbia was pulled upward by the same evening scarcity affecting Hungary, Romania and Croatia. With Serbia shown as a net importer on the daily balance, the market was exposed to regional import pricing rather than insulated domestic surplus. The signal for Serbian traders is therefore not just the average price, but the rising value of evening coverage and cross-border optionality.
Fuel and carbon did not drive the spot rally. CEGH gas fell to €43.25/MWh, down €0.6/MWh, while EUA fell to €80.71/t, down €0.9/t. Coal forwards were only marginally higher, with Jul-26 API-2 at $115/t and Q3-26 at $113/t. Hungarian forward power also did not fully chase the spot spike: Week 27 fell to €132.50/MWh, while Jul-26 rose to €120.50/MWh. This suggests the market read the 24 June move mainly as a weather-renewables-hourly scarcity event rather than a broader repricing of the fuel stack.
The short-term outlook remains constructive for prices because the weather forecast points warmer. The report shows the SEE+HU temperature forecast rising from 24.4°C on 24 June to 25.4°C on 25 June, 26.7°C on 26 June and 27.4°C on 27 June. Hungary is forecast to rise to 29.7°C, Serbia to 28.1°C, Croatia to 27.5°C and Montenegro to 30.9°C by 27 June. That should lift cooling demand, especially in evening residual-load hours. Unless wind recovers materially or solar output improves enough to reduce evening stress through storage or hydro management, the premium risk remains concentrated in H20-H22, with midday still vulnerable to solar-led price compression.
The trading read is therefore straightforward: buying pressure is evening-shaped, not baseload-neutral. HUPX, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia are the key premium nodes; Serbia is increasingly exposed through import dependence and regional evening pricing; Greece and Bulgaria remain the main lower-price anchors; and Montenegro remains structurally import-sensitive but did not follow the day’s rally. For BESS and flexible hydro, the day was highly supportive: the spread between the H14 trough near €60/MWh and the H21 spike above €600/MWh created one of the clearest arbitrage windows in the recent daily sequence.