Gas volatility in Week 24 did not translate into higher electricity prices across Southeast Europe. Although European TTF futures averaged €49.00/MWh, up 0.9% week-on-week, most SEE day-ahead power markets moved lower as stronger renewable generation and improved regional supply conditions dominated price formation.
TTF prices remained volatile during the week, briefly reaching a high of €49.99/MWh before easing to €46.77/MWh by Friday. The one-month forward was assessed at €41.180/MWh, while Henry Hub traded at $3.24/MMBtu and JKM stood at $15.940/MMBtu. Despite ongoing sensitivity to LNG competition, storage refill needs, and geopolitical risk, near-term fundamentals prevented a sustained gas-driven rally.
In contrast, electricity markets were primarily shaped by renewables rather than gas. Regional wind and solar output increased by 518.6 GWh (+16.6%), reaching 3.64 TWh. Wind generation rose by 28.1%, while solar increased by 10.4%, significantly boosting supply during a week of already rising demand, which increased by 4.6%.
This additional renewable output helped push prices lower across several markets, including Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, and Italy. The effect was strong enough to offset what would typically be upward pressure from gas markets.
Thermal generation did not transmit gas volatility into power pricing either. Gas-fired output declined by 58.0 GWh (−2.4%) to 2.38 TWh, meaning gas was less frequently on the margin. Instead, coal and lignite stepped in, increasing by 420.6 GWh (+24.4%) to 2.14 TWh, largely compensating for a 7.5% decline in hydropower.
This substitution effect further weakened the link between gas prices and electricity price formation in the region. With coal increasingly setting the marginal unit in several hours, gas signals were partially displaced from short-term price discovery.
Overall, Week 24 highlights a shifting structure in SEE power markets. While gas remains a key macro risk driver, actual price formation is increasingly determined by the balance between renewables, hydro variability, and coal dispatch. In this environment, gas volatility was present—but not decisive. The dominant force was the surge in renewable generation, which capped prices before gas fundamentals could fully transmit into the power sector.