The Monday rebound was broad but uneven. After the Sunday trough, almost all SEE and Central European day-ahead prices moved sharply higher. HUPX rose to €91.89/MWh, up €31.9/MWh day on day, while Romania followed at €90.24/MWh, Slovenia at €87.85/MWh, Croatia at €87.23/MWh, Greece at €86.75/MWh and Bulgaria at €85.71/MWh. The region’s price floor remained Serbia, where SEEPEX settled at €53.40/MWh, still €38.49/MWh below HUPX, while the upper anchor was Italy at €130.02/MWh, €38.13/MWh above HUPX. This left the region split into three zones: a tightly clustered HU/RO/BG/GR/SI/HR core, a discounted Western Balkans pocket led by Serbia, and a high-priced Italian sink.
The demand signal was the main driver. Regional consumption rose to 28.944 GW, up 3.337 GW day on day, while total net imports fell to 1.652 GW, down 1.325 GW from Sunday. That combination means Monday’s higher load was partly absorbed by stronger internal generation and stronger solar output rather than by a proportional import increase. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into HU/SI still remained large at 2.970 GW, but were lower by 1.159 GW, while the region exported 1.055 GW toward Italy, reflecting Italy’s much higher clearing price.
Solar remained the decisive intraday shaping factor. The regional solar forecast jumped to 7.296 GW, up 2.812 GW day on day, while wind was only 1.160 GW, up just 77 MW. That mix explains the strong midday price compression and evening scarcity profile. On HUPX, the daily minimum came around the solar-heavy midday period, while the maximum moved into the evening, with Hungary’s spot profile showing a sharp rise after the daytime trough. This is no longer a simple baseload market: the price risk is increasingly concentrated in the ramp from solar surplus into evening residual demand.
Cross-border balances confirm the same structure. The HU+SEE region was still a net importer by 1.652 GW, but the burden was not evenly distributed. Croatia was the largest importer at -1.141 GW, followed by Romania at -904 MW, Serbia at -418 MW and Hungary at -269 MW. On the export side, Bulgaria exported 489 MW and Greece 264 MW, with Albania also positive in the detailed country data. This matters for trading because the physical balance does not fully match the price map: Serbia was deeply discounted but still import-dependent, pointing to congestion, local bidding structure and limited market coupling effects rather than a fully efficient regional price signal.
Serbia remains the most interesting dislocation. SEEPEX at €53.40/MWh was far below HUPX, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Greece, yet Serbia’s system balance showed 3.276 GW of consumption, 2.858 GW of generation and -418 MW of net exports, meaning a net import position. The Serbian generation stack remains coal-heavy, with the latest disclosed mix showing coal around 71%, hydro around 23%, wind around 5% and gas around 1%. For traders, this is a congestion and optionality signal: cheap Serbian day-ahead prices do not automatically mean available export capacity or monetisable spread capture into Hungary, Croatia or Romania.
Bulgaria was the regional balancing support. Its consumption reached 3.807 GW, generation 4.296 GW and exports 489 MW, while flows turned strongly toward Romania and Serbia in the detailed border data. Greece also moved back to a net export position of 264 MW, with generation at 6.072 GW against consumption of 5.808 GW. Croatia, by contrast, stayed structurally short: consumption was 1.939 GW, generation only 798 MW, and net imports 1.141 GW, making it one of the clearest buyers of regional flexibility.
The forward market tells a different story from spot. The Monday day-ahead rally did not translate into a bullish forward repricing. Hungarian power forwards softened, with Week 25 at €107.50/MWh, Week 26 at €120/MWh, July 2026 at €119/MWh and Cal-26 at €113/MWh, all lower except the nearest HU-DE spread line. Gas forwards and coal also moved down, while EUA held flat at €77.17/t. That says the spot move was driven by load recovery, daily shape and congestion rather than a broader fuel-cost shock.
The near-term bias is firmer but volatile. Weather forecasts show regional temperatures rising through the week, especially in Hungary, Serbia and Croatia, while Greece remains warm. If solar stays strong, midday prices should remain compressed, but evening prices should retain premium risk, particularly where imports from CORE and Italy-facing flows tighten available capacity. The key trading watchpoints are therefore HUPX evening hours, Serbia-Hungary and Serbia-Croatia spread monetisation, Croatia’s import dependence, Bulgaria-Romania flows, and Italy’s persistent premium over the SEE core.