Southeast Europe’s energy transition remains dependent on conventional generation whenever demand rises and wind output weakens. Week 23 made that reality clear. Regional thermal generation increased 24.5% week on week to 4.22 TWh, as coal, lignite and gas-fired plants stepped in to cover a tighter system balance.
The rise was driven mainly by Türkiye, where thermal output more than doubled, increasing 103.2% to 2.03 TWh. Turkish coal generation rose 55.7%, while gas-fired output jumped 278.1%. This was a direct response to a 31.0% surge in Turkish electricity demand. Even with stronger solar and hydro output, the system required a large conventional response.
Greece also increased thermal generation, with lignite output up 66.2%, while Serbia recorded higher thermal production as well. Romania increased thermal output by 5.2%, supported by stronger gas-fired generation. Italy moved in the opposite direction, with thermal generation down 16.7%, mainly because gas-fired production fell, but Italy still remained the region’s highest-priced market at €128.09/MWh.
The market message is clear. Renewable growth has not removed thermal generation from the SEE price stack. It has changed when thermal generation is needed. Coal, lignite and gas increasingly provide balancing during evening ramps, weak-wind periods, hydro shortfalls and high-demand weeks. That makes thermal assets less about baseload volume and more about system security and marginal pricing.
This has financial consequences. Gas prices near €50/MWh keep gas-fired power expensive. Lignite and coal remain important in several SEE systems, but they carry carbon and policy risks. Thermal units can earn value during tight hours, but their long-term role is exposed to decarbonisation, emissions costs, plant age and regulatory pressure.
The transition risk is therefore two-sided. Retiring thermal capacity too quickly can create security-of-supply problems and price spikes. Keeping it too long can increase carbon exposure, reduce investment in flexibility and weaken alignment with EU climate policy. SEE markets are still trying to manage that balance.
Week 23 is a warning against simplified transition narratives. Solar and wind are growing, but when wind falls 15.5% and demand rises 8.2%, conventional plants still carry the system. The investment question is not whether thermal disappears tomorrow. It is how quickly batteries, hydro flexibility, demand response and interconnectors can reduce the need for thermal ramping.
Until then, thermal generation remains the backstop. It sets the price floor in tight hours, supports reliability and exposes the region to fuel and carbon risk. SEE’s energy transition will be judged by how effectively it reduces this dependency without compromising system security.
Elevated by energy.clarion.engineer