Southeast Europe entered the last week of May with a clear split between softer Central and Balkan power prices on one side and stronger Italian and Serbian pricing on the other. The regional pattern was not uniform: most markets weakened as renewable availability and lower demand improved balances, while Italy and Serbia moved higher, widening price dispersion across the region. The weekly average price range was exceptionally wide, from €4.03/MWh in Türkiye to €123.58/MWh in Italy. Greece remained relatively stable at €86.77/MWh, down 0.7% week-on-week, while Bulgaria fell 11.3%, Romania 5.1%, Croatia 5.5%, and Hungary 3.6%. Serbia was the main bullish exception, with the weekly average jumping 30.1% to €105.71/MWh. Türkiye was the extreme outlier, with prices collapsing by more than 73% to just €4.03/MWh, pointing to very strong domestic renewable availability, low marginal-cost supply and softer demand, reports Electricity.Trade
Italy remained the premium market in the region, with its average price rising 6.3% to €123.58/MWh, supported by weaker wind output and higher thermal generation. Serbia’s move to €105.71/MWh placed it among the more expensive SEE markets, despite broadly stable imports. The report’s daily price chart shows most markets peaking around Tuesday and Wednesday, 27–28 May, while the lowest prices were generally seen on Monday, 25 May. By 3 June, day-ahead prices across SEE were again trending upward, ranging from €85.72/MWh in Greece to €118.10/MWh in Slovenia, suggesting that the softer Week 22 balance was already beginning to tighten at the start of the following week.
Demand and generation balance
Regional electricity demand declined sharply on paper, falling 5.9% week-on-week from 14.9 TWh to 14.0 TWh, but the headline number was heavily distorted by Türkiye. Turkish demand dropped 21.7%, equal to 1.38 TWh, more than the full regional decline. Excluding Türkiye, SEE demand was broadly stable, with Italy adding 505 GWh, or 10.8%, Greece rising 3.8%, and Croatia increasing 6.2%. Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary recorded modest demand declines. This means the regional price softness outside Italy and Serbia was driven less by a broad economic demand contraction and more by a combination of renewables, hydro positioning, cross-border flows and country-specific generation mix.
Variable renewable generation weakened overall, falling 10.1% from 3.74 TWh to 3.36 TWh, because the region’s wind fleet underperformed. Wind output dropped 30.0%, or 532 GWh, with the largest reductions in Italy, Türkiye and Romania. Solar moved in the opposite direction, increasing 7.8%, or 153 GWh, with strong gains in Bulgaria, Romaniaand Greece. Bulgaria’s variable renewable generation rose 44.0%, almost entirely on solar, while Greece increased total variable RES output 9.3% to 653 GWh, supported by both wind and solar. The result was a more solar-led market structure, with deeper midday price pressure but less wind support across evening and overnight periods.
Hydropower generation also declined, falling 10.2% from 3.98 TWh to 3.57 TWh, again mainly because of Türkiye, where hydro output fell 19.2%, or 549 GWh. Outside Türkiye, hydro conditions were more supportive. Italy’s hydro generation rose 26.5% to 696 GWh, Croatia surged 75.4%, and Greece increased 12.1% to 97 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania recorded moderate hydro declines. This hydro pattern helped explain why Greece and Bulgaria could export more, while Italy still needed higher imports and more thermal dispatch because weak wind outweighed the hydro improvement.
Thermal generation fell 8.5% regionally, from 3.78 TWh to 3.46 TWh. Coal and lignite output declined 10.9%, while gas-fired generation fell 7.0%. Türkiye was the main driver, with thermal generation down 41.4%, equal to 707 GWh, including a 70.6% fall in gas-fired output. Bulgaria and Serbia also reduced thermal production. Greece and Romania moved the other way, raising thermal generation by 8.5% and 8.4%, largely through gas. Italy’s thermal output rose strongly by 32.6%, with gas generation up 25.3%, reflecting the need to compensate for weaker wind generation and maintain domestic balance despite stronger imports.reports Electricity.Trade
Cross-border flows and market positioning
Cross-border electricity trade intensified, with total exchanges rising 8.4% week-on-week to 1,117 GWh. Greece remained a major net exporter, with exports increasing 35.7% to 241 GWh, helped by competitive generation and relatively stable domestic pricing. Bulgaria also improved its export position sharply, from 6 GWh to 61 GWh, while Türkiye almost tripled net exports to 95 GWh. Italy remained the region’s dominant net importer, with imports increasing 28.3% to more than 1.1 TWh, confirming its structural reliance on cross-border supply during periods of tight domestic balance. Romania and Croatia increased net imports by 27.1% and 36.5%, while Hungary reduced imports by 18.7%. Serbia’s import position was broadly stable even as its market price rose, suggesting that price formation was driven by local scarcity, interconnection constraints, bidding dynamics or availability of domestic generation rather than a simple increase in import dependence.
The flow map in the report shows a congested regional trading structure around the Hungary–Balkans–Romania–Bulgaria–Greece corridor, with Italy absorbing substantial volumes from neighbouring zones. The pattern reinforces the importance of interconnection capacity in SEE price formation: Greece and Bulgaria were able to monetise stronger positions through exports, while Italy’s higher price created a regional pull for electricity. Serbia’s premium, meanwhile, shows that SEE convergence remains incomplete and that national system conditions can still override broader regional softness.
Gas market
European gas prices softened but remained structurally elevated. TTF futures averaged €46.56/MWh, down 6.7% week-on-week, after peaking at €47.64/MWh on 26 May and closing at €46.00/MWh on 29 May. The decline reflected improved market sentiment, stable LNG inflows, comfortable storage injection and weaker short-term demand, but the level remained high compared with normal seasonal conditions. The report notes that geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and global LNG balances continued to keep a premium in European gas prices. At publication, the one-month TTF forward was trading at €49.200/MWh, equivalent to $16.77/MMBtu.
LNG flows showed mixed regional dynamics. Greece received 404.07 GWh of LNG, a 15.2% recovery from the previous week. Italy recorded 4,113.50 GWh, broadly stable with a 0.55% increase. Croatia received 633.39 GWh, down 8.9% week-on-week. The charts show Italy remaining the largest LNG entry point in the reviewed group, while Greece’s recovery supported its wider energy balance and Croatia’s decline reduced its regional gas flexibility.
The wider gas narrative is important for power pricing because gas-fired plants remained marginal in several SEE and Southern European markets, especially Italy, Greece and Romania. Even with TTF easing, gas around €46–49/MWh still implies a relatively high short-run cost for CCGT generation, particularly after carbon costs and efficiency losses. That helps explain why Italy stayed above €120/MWh despite stronger imports and better hydro output. In markets where gas plants were called more heavily, wholesale electricity prices remained exposed to the TTF risk premium, reports Electricity.Trade
Country summaries
Greece remained one of the more competitive SEE markets, with the weekly average at €86.77/MWh and a marginal 0.7% decline. Demand increased 3.8%, but stronger renewable generation and higher hydro output supported the balance. Greece exported 241 GWh, up 35.7%, confirming its role as a regional exporter during the week.
Italy was the most expensive SEE market, averaging €123.58/MWh, up 6.3%. Demand rose 10.8%, wind output weakened, and thermal generation increased 32.6%, with gas output up 25.3%. Imports exceeded 1.1 TWh, but the market still cleared at a premium.
Bulgaria recorded the sharpest EU SEE price decline, down 11.3% to €93.50/MWh. Solar generation surged, total variable RES output rose 44.0%, and net exports increased to 61 GWh, indicating a materially improved system balance.
Romania fell 5.1% to €103.46/MWh despite higher gas-fired generation. Demand declined 3.4%, solar rose strongly, but wind and hydro weakened. Romania increased net imports by 27.1%, keeping it exposed to regional price signals.
Hungary eased 3.6% to €105.20/MWh. Demand was almost flat, hydro was negligible and weaker, and the country reduced net imports by 18.7%. Prices remained above several neighbouring markets, preserving Hungary’s role as a key regional price reference.
Serbia was the standout bullish market, rising 30.1% to €105.71/MWh. Demand slipped 1.4%, thermal generation was lower, and imports were broadly stable. The price increase points to tighter domestic balancing conditions or constrained access to cheaper regional supply.
Croatia declined 5.5% to €100.94/MWh. Demand rose 6.2%, hydro generation surged 75.4%, but net imports also increased 36.5%. The market remained close to the regional middle despite stronger domestic hydro support.
Türkiye was the dominant bearish outlier, with prices collapsing to €4.03/MWh. Demand fell 21.7%, thermal generation dropped 41.4%, and the country almost tripled exports to 95 GWh. The Turkish market was effectively disconnected from the price logic of the rest of SEE during the week.
Market takeaway
As reported by Electricity.Trade Week 22 was not a simple “lower price” week. It was a week of fragmentation. Central and Balkan markets softened where solar, hydro or imports improved the balance, but Italy and Serbia tightened. The most important signal is the widening spread between Italy at €123.58/MWh, Serbia at €105.71/MWh, Greece at €86.77/MWh, and Türkiye at €4.03/MWh. For traders, this created stronger cross-border optionality. For generators, it underlined the difference between solar-led midday compression and evening scarcity. For industrial buyers, the market remained exposed to gas despite softer TTF, because gas prices around €46–49/MWh still set a high floor under thermal marginal pricing in Italy, Greece and parts of the wider SEE system.