Southeast European electricity markets moved sharply lower for delivery on 3 June, with a resurgence in wind generation and a surge in cross-border imports from Central Europe easing supply concerns and pushing day-ahead prices down across nearly every major market in the region.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €116.31/MWh, down €5.6/MWh day on day, while Romania’s OPCOM closed at €116.24/MWh and Bulgaria’s IBEX at €115.27/MWh. Prices fell even more aggressively across the Western Balkans, with Serbia’s SEEPEX dropping €12.9/MWh to €108.04/MWh, Montenegro’s BELEN falling €15.2/MWh to €106.26/MWh, and North Macedonia losing almost €18/MWh to settle at €104.69/MWh. Greece remained the region’s lowest-priced market at €85.72/MWh, trading at a discount of more than €30/MWh to Hungary.
The price correction came as renewable output strengthened substantially across the region. Total SEE and Hungarian generation increased by almost 1.8 GW compared with the previous day, reaching 27.8 GW, while demand rose by a more modest 987 MW to approximately 29 GW. Wind production was the primary driver of the shift, jumping by 1.28 GW day on day to 2.49 GW, while solar generation increased by 453 MW to exceed 6 GW. Hydro output also edged higher, reaching 6.55 GW.
The recovery in renewable generation significantly altered the regional supply stack. Solar and hydro together accounted for nearly half of total generation, while wind’s contribution doubled compared with the previous trading session. Gas-fired generation, by contrast, fell by almost 500 MW, reflecting weaker marginal thermal requirements as renewable availability improved.
Cross-border flows also played a critical role in shaping market outcomes. Net imports into the wider SEE-Hungary region increased dramatically to 1,830 MW, compared with only 232 MW a day earlier. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia exceeded 2.6 GW, highlighting the importance of Central European supply in balancing Southeast European demand.
A widening spread between Hungary and Germany reinforced those import incentives. The Hungarian-German day-ahead differential widened to €13.68/MWh, compared with almost flat levels on the previous day, encouraging increased commercial imports from western markets. This additional supply flowed through Hungary and into neighbouring Southeast European systems, helping cap prices despite growing consumption.
Serbia was among the biggest beneficiaries of these developments. SEEPEX traded more than €8/MWh below Hungary and roughly €10/MWh below Slovenia, reflecting both stronger regional supply and favourable import economics. Market participants continue to view Serbia as one of the most interconnected markets in the Western Balkans, with pricing increasingly determined by regional flows rather than purely domestic generation conditions.
In Greece, abundant solar generation once again decoupled prices from the rest of the region. HENEX maintained a significant discount to neighbouring markets despite elevated temperatures, underlining the growing influence of photovoltaic capacity on Greek power pricing. The market’s midday profile remained heavily depressed by solar output, while evening peaks were considerably lower than those observed earlier in the week.
Forward markets nevertheless continued to signal expectations of tighter conditions later in the summer. Hungarian Week 24 contracts traded around €110/MWh, Week 25 at €115/MWh, while July baseload remained elevated at €123/MWh. Traders continue to price in potential weather-related demand increases, lower hydro availability and the possibility of stronger thermal marginality during peak summer periods.
Fuel markets offered little support for power prices. Austrian CEGH gas traded at €49.19/MWh, while EU carbon allowances remained close to €80/t, keeping thermal generation costs relatively elevated despite the recent easing in spot electricity values. Coal futures also softened, with API2 July contracts falling to approximately $131.5/t, reflecting broader weakness across European energy commodities.
Fundamentally, the market narrative remains unchanged. Renewable generation continues to dominate short-term price formation across Southeast Europe. The sharp increase in wind production on 3 June demonstrated how quickly regional balances can shift when weather conditions improve. As long as wind and solar availability remain robust and Central European imports continue flowing into Hungary and the Balkans, regional prices are likely to remain under pressure despite firm fuel and carbon markets. The combination of stronger renewable output, widening import opportunities and lower thermal utilisation has returned much of Southeast Europe to a more comfortably supplied position heading into the first week of June.
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