Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets moved sharply lower for delivery on 2 June, with prices across Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia converging near the €121/MWh level after the previous session’s rally.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €121.92/MWh, down almost €29/MWh day on day, while Romania’s OPCOM and Bulgaria’s IBEX both cleared at €121.21/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX closed at €120.90/MWh, with Croatia’s CROPEX at €121.66/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP at €121.75/MWh.
The regional market remained highly coupled, with only limited price divergence between Central European and Southeast European bidding zones. Greece continued to trade at a substantial discount, with HENEX settling at €96.31/MWh, supported by strong renewable generation and persistent solar oversupply during daylight hours.
Fundamentals point to a market that remains adequately supplied despite a significant increase in weekday demand. Total electricity consumption across the SEE system rose to 28.2 GW, an increase of approximately 1.4 GW compared with the previous trading day as industrial load returned following the weekend period.
Regional generation increased by 1.33 GW, allowing the market to absorb the higher demand without requiring significant import support. Net imports across the monitored markets fell sharply to just 84 MW, compared with almost 1.2 GW one day earlier, highlighting the growing ability of domestic generation resources to satisfy regional demand requirements.
The generation mix shifted materially during the session. Solar output declined by approximately 684 MW compared with the previous day, reflecting changing weather conditions and weekday production patterns. Thermal generation compensated for the renewable decline, with gas-fired generation increasing by 753 MW, coal-fired output rising by 314 MW, and hydro generation contributing an additional 254 MW.
Gas-fired plants therefore emerged as the primary marginal technology across much of the region, particularly during morning and evening peak demand periods when solar generation was unavailable.
Hydropower contributed approximately 25% of regional generation, remaining the single largest source within the generation mix, while solar accounted for roughly 20%, gas for 17%, and coal and nuclear each represented around 14% of total supply.
Cross-border flows continued to reveal a familiar regional pattern. Greece remained the largest importing market, drawing approximately 1.66 GW from neighbouring systems. Romania and Bulgaria maintained their position as net exporters, while Serbia and Croatia continued to rely on imports during parts of the trading day.
The relatively low Greek price maintained attractive export economics toward neighbouring Balkan markets and Italy. Market participants continue to monitor increasing renewable penetration in Greece, where recurring negative-price episodes and midday oversupply conditions are exerting downward pressure on average wholesale prices.
Forward markets showed limited reaction to the spot correction. Hungarian Week 24 contracts traded around €114/MWh, while Week 25 contracts were assessed near €118/MWh. July baseload power remained firm at approximately €125.50/MWh, indicating that traders continue to price a tighter summer balance despite softer day-ahead fundamentals.
Commodity markets provided mixed signals. Austrian CEGH gas futures traded near €48.5/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances remained elevated around €79/t. Coal prices strengthened further, with API2 contracts moving above $130/t, maintaining pressure on thermal generation costs across Central and Southeast Europe.
For Serbia, SEEPEX pricing remained closely aligned with neighbouring Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary, underlining the increasing integration of the country’s wholesale market with broader regional fundamentals.
Market participants are also monitoring the development of Serbia’s proposed gas-fired power station in Niš. The planned project, being advanced jointly by EPS and SOCAR, could eventually add up to 500 MW of dispatchable capacity and improve balancing flexibility as renewable penetration increases during the second half of the decade.
Attention is additionally focused on ongoing discussions regarding transmission connection rules for renewable projects. Industry representatives have warned that more than 1.15 GW of planned wind and solar capacity could face delays under the current framework, potentially slowing the next phase of renewable investment in the Serbian market.
Looking ahead, weather forecasts indicate relatively stable temperatures across most Southeast European markets during the first week of June, limiting near-term demand risks. However, traders continue to watch the scheduled TurkStream maintenance period between 2 and 7 June, regional hydrological conditions and gas storage injections as potential drivers of price volatility during the remainder of the month.
The prevailing market picture remains one of adequate supply and strong regional interconnection. While thermal generation has regained importance following the decline in solar output, robust generation availability and limited import dependence suggest that Southeast European power markets enter June with comfortable operational margins despite increasing summer demand.