SEE power markets opened the new trading week with a sharp rebound in day-ahead electricity prices on 18 May, driven by a combination of lower wind generation, tighter regional import balances and stronger weekday demand recovery after the weekend.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price surged to €143.22/MWh, up more than €55/MWh day-on-day, while Romania’s OPCOM closed at €143.19/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX at €143.24/MWh, and Slovenia’s BSP at €143.18/MWh, confirming renewed price convergence across Central and South-East Europe. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained structurally decoupled at €82.27/MWh, while Albania and Montenegro also traded materially below core regional hubs at €61.67/MWh and €84.19/MWh respectively.
The main market driver was the collapse in regional wind output. Forecast wind generation across the SEE system dropped by approximately 1,029 MW day-on-day, falling to around 1,651 MW, while solar generation partially compensated with an increase of nearly 978 MW. The generation balance clearly shifted back toward thermal and imported marginal pricing during evening peak hours, especially around hour 21 where most regional exchanges recorded daily maxima above €250/MWh.
Regional consumption simultaneously rebounded strongly after the weekend. Total SEE plus Hungary forecast demand climbed to roughly 27.9 GW, increasing by more than 1.7 GW day-on-day, while temperatures across the region also moved higher. This demand normalization coincided with a sharp contraction in net regional imports, which fell to only -80 MW versus over 1.5 GW one day earlier. The reduction of cheaper core European inflows materially tightened local pricing structures.
Hydro conditions nevertheless remain structurally supportive for the region. Total hydro generation stayed elevated at roughly 6.3 GW, representing around 25% of the overall generation mix. Danube flow levels also remain significantly above long-term averages near 6,848 m³/s, reinforcing strong hydropower performance in Romania and the wider Balkan system. This explains the exceptionally strong Q1 financial results now being reported by hydro-dominated utilities such as Romania’s Hidroelectrica and Montenegro’s EPCG.
Romania continues emerging as one of the strongest regional generators structurally. Q1 2026 electricity production rose by 8.8%, with hydropower generation increasing by 38.3% and wind output by 18% year-on-year. Hidroelectrica’s net profit more than doubled to approximately €263 million, benefiting from elevated wholesale market monetization and stronger balancing revenues.
Montenegro’s EPCG also reported a substantial profitability improvement, with Q1 net profit reaching €36.5 million compared to €10.2 million a year earlier, supported by hydrology and increased thermal production at Pljevlja. These results are becoming increasingly important from a CBAM and regional electricity-trading perspective because hydro-heavy generation portfolios are strengthening the long-term commercial attractiveness of low-carbon regional electricity exports into EU-linked industrial supply chains.
The futures curve meanwhile indicates that traders still expect structurally elevated power pricing into summer despite current renewable expansion. Hungarian Week 21 baseload forwards traded around €118.5/MWh, while June 2026 contracts remained above €113/MWh. EUA carbon prices also stabilized around €75.6/tCO₂, continuing to underpin coal and gas marginal pricing economics across the SEE region.
Gas markets remain another critical structural variable. CEGH gas prices traded around €50.67/MWh, while regional strategic positioning around the Vertical Gas Corridor continues accelerating. Greece, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria formally advanced discussions on expanding the corridor deeper into the Western Balkans, reinforcing the strategic role of South-East Europe as a future gas and electricity transit hub.
One of the most important structural developments remains the growing divergence between fully coupled EU exchanges and the still partially isolated SEE markets. Serbia’s SEEPEX prices staying roughly €60/MWh below HUPX on the same delivery day again highlighted how local balancing conditions, generation mix and cross-border congestion continue fragmenting regional pricing dynamics. For traders, industrial buyers and future battery-storage operators, these spreads increasingly represent both arbitrage opportunities and emerging congestion-risk signals.
Battery storage economics continue improving under exactly these volatility conditions. Albania’s planned 160 MW solar + 60 MW battery project backed by potential EBRD financing illustrates how investors are repositioning around hybrid flexibility assets rather than standalone renewables. The growing evening ramp between collapsing solar output and weakened wind generation is now repeatedly producing high-value peak spreads across SEE markets, particularly during hour 20–22 windows visible across HUPX, OPCOM and BSP intraday profiles.
At the same time, thermal generation remains materially embedded in regional balancing structures. Coal and gas still represented approximately 28% of total SEE+Hungary generation on 18 May, despite strong hydro and solar conditions. Greece’s closure of the 1,595 MW Agios Dimitrios lignite plant therefore carries wider implications beyond decarbonization alone, because it increases regional dependence on gas, interconnections and flexible balancing capacity.
The broader market picture increasingly suggests that SEE electricity markets are entering a structurally more volatile phase where hydrology, solar cannibalization, evening peak scarcity, cross-border congestion and CBAM-linked low-carbon electricity demand will simultaneously shape pricing. Daily averages alone are becoming less relevant than hourly volatility structures, particularly for traders, BESS operators and industrial consumers exposed to intraday balancing costs.