The regional day-ahead market moved sharply lower on 30 April, with most SEE and Central European hubs correcting after the previous session’s stronger pricing. HUPX settled at €89.82/MWh, down €22.8/MWh day on day, while SEEPEX Serbia reached €91.79/MWh, down €15.3/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM was close to Hungary at €90.87/MWh, Bulgaria fell to €85.92/MWh, Greece to €86.43/MWh, Croatia to €82.56/MWh, Slovenia to €81.87/MWh, and Montenegro to €82.64/MWh. Albania was the clear outlier, rising to €96.33/MWh, while North Macedonia also increased to €85.87/MWh.
The trading signal is a classic solar-midday compression versus evening scarcity spread. Across several markets, hourly curves show weak or negative midday prices but strong evening peaks around H20–H21. Hungary’s 7-day table shows a 30 April base of €89.8/MWh, but the minimum fell to -€28.2/MWh, while the maximum reached €248.5/MWh. Serbia showed a cleaner scarcity profile, with SEEPEX base at €91.8/MWh, peak at €75.8/MWh, off-peak at €107.8/MWh, minimum €30/MWh and maximum €165/MWh. This means Serbia avoided the deepest negative-price stress seen in Hungary, Slovenia, Austria and Croatia, but still priced above several neighbouring SEE markets.
System fundamentals were not bearish on demand. Regional consumption rose to 30,297 MW, up 1,115 MW day on day, while total generation fell by 715 MW to 27,408 MW. Imports remained structurally important at 1,583 MW, although down 190 MW from the previous day. The supply mix was led by hydro at 6,638 MW, nuclear at 5,428 MW, coal at 5,190 MW, solar at 4,868 MW, gas at 3,224 MW, wind at only 1,233 MW, and other generation at 828 MW. The most important short-term change was solar: output fell 821 MW day on day, while gas rose 252 MW, confirming that thermal flexibility was again needed to cover ramps.
Cross-border flows show the region remained a net importer. The SEE balance recorded -1,583 MW average net import, with Hungary at -518 MW, Serbia at -553 MW, Bulgaria at -314 MW, Romania at -393 MW, Croatia at -213 MW, while Greece was a net exporter at +130 MW. This import dependence supported evening prices despite weaker daily averages. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary/Slovenia were still high at 3,196 MW, while the HU-DE spread narrowed sharply to €17.75/MWh, down almost €30/MWh day on day.
Forward markets were firmer despite weaker spot pricing. Hungarian power forwards rose, with Week 19 at €102/MWh, Week 20 at €96/MWh, May-26 at €96.5/MWh, and Cal-26 at €113/MWh. Gas also strengthened, with CEGH at €47.03/MWh and Greece gas around €47/MWh. Coal forwards moved higher, with May-26 API2 at $110.5/t and Q3-26 at $119.5/t, while EUA softened to €73.2/t. The forward curve therefore points to traders still pricing fuel-risk and summer reserve risk, even as the spot market was pulled lower by intraday renewable effects.
The key signal is not the daily average but the widening shape value: midday remains vulnerable to solar-driven price collapse, while evening hours retain scarcity premium. Batteries, pumped hydro, flexible gas, hydro dispatch and intraday optimisation continue to gain value. Serbia and Albania showed relative price strength, Hungary remained the regional reference hub, while Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and Austria were weaker because of stronger exposure to Central European solar-price compression.