Electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary advanced on 13 April, supported by stronger demand, rising temperatures, and tightening cross-border dynamics. However, the regional rally was uneven, with Serbia’s SEEPEX exchange diverging from the broader upward trend and emerging as the most competitively priced market in the region.
Day-ahead baseload prices rose sharply across most power exchanges. Hungary’s HUPX settled at 97.98 €/MWh, Romania’s OPCOM at 94.91 €/MWh, Bulgaria’s IBEX at 91.75 €/MWh, Greece’s HENEX at 90.06 €/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX at 90.11 €/MWh, and Slovenia’s BSP at 85.75 €/MWh. In contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at 77.34 €/MWh, making it the lowest-priced market in Southeast Europe. Montenegro’s BELEN stood at 91.26 €/MWh, reflecting alignment with broader regional price movements.
The divergence underscores localized supply conditions and underscores Serbia’s continued role as a regional pricing outlier. The spread between Hungary and Serbia widened to more than 20 €/MWh, creating arbitrage opportunities for cross-border traders and reinforcing SEEPEX’s attractiveness within the regional trading ecosystem.
Western European markets remained structurally more expensive. Germany traded at 127.30 €/MWh, Austria at 114.33 €/MWh, and Italy at 141.86 €/MWh, highlighting the persistent premium of core European markets over Southeast Europe. This price differential continues to influence interconnector flows and supports exports from Central and Southeastern Europe toward higher-priced markets when transmission capacity permits.
Demand growth and renewable output shape market dynamics
Electricity consumption across the SEE and Hungarian region rose to 27,134 MW, an increase of 2,247 MW compared to the previous day, reflecting stronger economic activity and seasonal demand patterns. The increase coincided with milder temperatures and improved industrial load factors, contributing to upward pressure on prices.
Despite higher demand, generation dynamics remained influenced by renewable output. Solar generation surged, contributing significantly to the regional energy mix, while hydro output remained a cornerstone of system flexibility. According to the generation breakdown, hydro accounted for 26% of supply, nuclear 24%, solar 19%, coal 16%, and gas 12%, with wind providing a smaller share.
Total regional generation reached 24,767 MW, while imports remained moderate, reflecting balanced system conditions. Solar output rose notably, increasing by more than 1 GW day on day, highlighting the growing influence of renewables on intraday pricing patterns and volatility.
Cross-border flows and regional balancing trends
Cross-border electricity flows continued to shape price formation. Hungary remained a net importer, while Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece supported regional supply. Serbia also relied on imports within the broader regional balance, despite its comparatively lower price level.
The Hungary–Germany spread stood at -29.32 €/MWh, indicating that Hungarian prices were significantly below German levels and encouraging west-to-east electricity flows. Such spreads underscore the importance of market coupling and interconnector capacity in aligning regional price signals with the broader European market.
Commercial flow data also pointed to strong trading activity across borders, particularly along corridors linking Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Greece. These flows reinforce Southeast Europe’s role as a strategic bridge between Central Europe and Mediterranean energy markets.
Intraday volatility reflects solar expansion
Hourly price curves revealed pronounced volatility, driven largely by solar generation. Midday hours experienced lower prices due to increased photovoltaic output, while evening demand spikes pushed prices higher across major exchanges such as HUPX, OPCOM, BSP, and HENEX.
This pattern reflects the growing structural influence of renewable energy across the region. As solar capacity continues to expand, market participants are increasingly relying on flexible assets such as battery storage, gas-fired generation, and cross-border trading to manage intraday imbalances.
Forward markets signal stability
Forward markets indicated relative stability despite the spot rebound. Hungarian power futures were assessed at 108 €/MWh for Week 16, 102 €/MWh for Week 17, 91 €/MWh for May 2026, and 108 €/MWh for Cal-2026.
Fuel markets remained subdued, with the Austrian CEGH gas benchmark trading at 46.23 €/MWh and EU carbon allowances (EUA) at 72.84 €/t. These levels suggest moderate cost pressure for thermal generation and indicate that the spot price rebound is driven more by short-term fundamentals than structural tightening.
Coal futures and gas prices exhibited downward trends, further reinforcing expectations of stable or slightly softer electricity prices in the medium term, particularly as renewable capacity expands across the region.
Market outlook
The 13 April session highlights a market characterized by seasonal demand recovery, increasing renewable penetration, and persistent regional price spreads. The key trends shaping the SEE and Hungarian electricity markets include:
Rising solar generation, which continues to reshape intraday price dynamics and dampen midday prices.
Stable forward curves, indicating balanced supply-demand expectations and limited bullish pressure from fuel markets.
Persistent price disparities between Western and Southeast Europe, supporting cross-border trading and arbitrage.
Serbia’s role as a low-cost electricity hub, offering competitive opportunities for regional traders.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor renewable output, temperature forecasts, and interconnector availability. Particular attention will be placed on the Hungary–Germany spread and SEEPEX pricing dynamics, which remain critical indicators of regional liquidity and market direction.
As Southeast Europe deepens integration with the European power market, daily price movements such as those observed on 13 April underscore the region’s growing strategic importance in continental energy trading and system balancing.