Day-ahead electricity markets across Southeast Europe and Hungary corrected lower on 2 April, reversing part of the previous session’s rally as improved cross-border inflows, stronger renewable output and softer gas pricing combined to ease immediate system pressure. The move was broad-based and synchronized, with nearly all core markets posting double-digit declines, yet underlying fundamentals continue to point to a structurally tight system rather than a sustained bearish shift.
Hungary’s HUPX cleared at €135.80/MWh, down €18.5/MWh day on day, while Romania’s OPCOM, Bulgaria’s IBEX and Greece’s HENEX converged at €136.58/MWh, each falling by roughly €18–20/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP dropped to €133.91/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX to €134.25/MWh, and Serbia’s SEEPEX printed €132.32/MWh, marking the steepest decline in the region at €26.2/MWh. Albania remained structurally decoupled on the downside at €110.41/MWh, while Montenegro continued to trade at a premium at €141.29/MWh, reflecting local constraints and system positioning.
The scale and simultaneity of the correction suggest a common regional driver set rather than isolated market-specific adjustments. The most visible shift came from cross-border flows. Net imports into the broader SEE system rose sharply to 1,972 MW, an increase of 903 MW compared with the previous day, while core inflows into the Hungary-linked system climbed to 3,442 MW, up 770 MW. This influx of external supply reduced the need for marginal thermal generation and allowed prices to retrace from elevated levels seen earlier in the week.
At the same time, renewable generation improved, particularly in wind. Output rose to 3,482 MW, up 227 MW day on day, while solar remained broadly stable at 3,249 MW. Hydro output also edged higher to 8,200 MW, reinforcing the availability of non-thermal generation. The combined effect of stronger wind and hydro reduced reliance on gas-fired plants, which saw output decline to 5,416 MW, down 437 MW from the previous day. Coal generation remained relatively stable at 6,253 MW, continuing to provide baseload support to the system.
Despite the drop in prices, the system did not move into surplus territory. Total generation stood at 33,978 MW against consumption of 35,334 MW, leaving a structural gap covered by imports. This dynamic remains central to understanding the region’s pricing behaviour. Even when prices fall, they do so within a framework of dependency on external supply, meaning corrections tend to be sharp but shallow in duration.
Fuel markets reinforced the downward pressure on power prices. Austrian CEGH gas traded at €50.76/MWh, down €4.5/MWh on the day, while forward gas and power contracts softened modestly across the curve. Hungarian power forwards for Week 15 were assessed at €74.64/MWh, with April 2026 at €110.50/MWh and Cal-2026 at €112.50/MWh, all slightly lower compared with the previous session. Coal benchmarks also declined, while carbon allowances showed relative stability, indicating that the main easing factor came from gas rather than emissions pricing.
However, forward curves remain elevated relative to historical norms, suggesting that the market continues to price in structural risk rather than short-term comfort. The persistence of geopolitical uncertainty—particularly around Middle East tensions and their impact on global energy flows—continues to underpin gas pricing and, by extension, power markets across Europe. The increase in Russian gas flows via TurkStream and the ongoing reliance on pipeline supply into Southeast Europe further highlight the region’s exposure to external shocks.
Intraday price profiles confirm that volatility remains high. Peak-hour pricing across HUPX, BSP and OPCOM continued to exceed €170–230/MWh during evening hours, while midday prices softened more noticeably due to solar generation. This widening intra-day spread reflects a system increasingly shaped by renewable intermittency layered onto a thermally constrained base, a structure that amplifies volatility rather than dampens it.
Serbia’s position within this framework remains particularly sensitive. The SEEPEX price at €132.32/MWh placed it slightly below regional averages, indicating competitive positioning on the day, but still firmly within the high-price band. March trading volumes on SEEPEX reached 447,933 MWh, with an average base price of €94.67/MWh, up 38% month on month, underscoring how elevated current price levels remain even after daily corrections.
From a structural perspective, the regional system continues to exhibit three defining characteristics. First, it remains import-dependent, with cross-border flows playing a decisive role in price formation. Second, gas retains its role as the marginal price setter despite growing renewable capacity, meaning that any movement in gas markets quickly translates into power price volatility. Third, congestion and limited interconnection capacity continue to create localized price divergence, particularly visible in the persistent premium in Montenegro and the discount in Albania.
The widening Hungary-Germany spread of €21.76/MWh reinforces this point, highlighting that Central Eastern Europe remains decoupled from Western European price dynamics due to transmission constraints and structural supply differences.
Looking ahead, the sustainability of the current price correction will depend on whether the drivers observed on 2 April persist. Continued strong renewable output and stable or increasing import availability could keep prices under pressure in the near term. However, any tightening in gas markets, reduction in cross-border flows, or decline in wind generation would quickly reverse the trend.
The market is therefore best described not as bearish, but as temporarily rebalanced within a structurally tight framework, where volatility remains the dominant feature and directional moves are driven by short-term shifts in imports and fuel pricing rather than fundamental oversupply.